November 14, 2008 - Can earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and their consequences be predicted? According to the National Research Council report Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet, this is one of the 10 most important questions facing earth science this century. Although it may never be possible to predict the exact time and place an earthquake will strike, scientists continue to try new approaches.

An earthquake detection network launched earlier this year — the Quake-Catcher Network (QCN) — seeks to engage the public in the collection of scientific data as an inexpensive way to augment the existing network of earthquake monitoring stations. Better understanding of earthquakes could help scientists, engineers, and town planners improve building design, and may ultimately assist with early earthquake warnings and improved emergency response. The QCN measures tremor magnitude through a piece of electronic equipment found in most modern laptops — an accelerometer — which can also be attached via USB port to a desktop computer, enabling anyone with a computer and an Internet connection to participate. Although the data collected will not be as accurate as the data collected by more sensitive seismometers, scientists hope that the broader geographic range measurable by the QCN will add to our knowledge of how seismic waves generated by earthquakes move through the Earth. The QCN, and a number of similar proposals that are being developed to use accelerometers in computers and cell phones, was conceived in part as a way to fill gaps in the current seismic network.

The National Research Council report Improved Seismic Monitoring — Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty assessed the economic benefits of improving the nation’s seismic monitoring capabilities, and concluded that the potential benefits of improved monitoring far outweigh the costs. The report recommends that the United States should rank reducing seismic risk as highly as other critical national programs that need persistent long-term attention, and it should make the necessary investment to achieve this goal. Another report, Living on an Active Earth, identifies specific long-term goals in nine areas of interdisciplinary research that offer exceptional opportunities to further the national effort in earthquake science.

• Origin and Evolution of Earth: Research Questions for a Changing Planet
• Improved Seismic Monitoring – Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty
• Living on an Active Earth: Perspectives on Earthquake Science

• Quake-Catcher Network
• USGS Earthquake Center